I came close to snorting coffee out my nose, Honey Lady! Since it's my first cuppa joe of the day, I managed to swallow every drop of that precious caffeine loaded mouthful, but it was a struggle.
Love your "algebra problem" -- you spent a lot of time on that 'un! I dread that kind of story problem too, and I'm pretty good at math. It's problems like those that have made so many people algebra-phobic.
"...Exactly how have you figured out your (average?) water loss over (how long?) time?..."
I took a freshly cut bar and weighed it every few days for about 2 weeks. Weighed it every week or so for another few weeks. Made a chart of weight loss versus time (see first pic). When the weight loss was pretty slow (soap never seems to stop losing weight), I called it quits and looked at the total amount of loss. Did this with a couple of different bars with totally different recipes, and got about the same results -- very roughly about 10 percent water loss during cure.
This experiment ignored any water loss in the soap pot and in the mold. Although I know there is some weight loss during those steps, I didn't look at that. Next time!
The amount of weight loss depends on the amount of water in the recipe and how you make the soap. If you use "full water" (about 28% lye solution concentration), your soap will have somewhat more water loss than soap made with a more concentrated lye solution. CPOP soap or soap that goes through gel is likely to start out drier than no-gel soap put in the fridge or freezer. A soap made in a slab (tray) mold is likely to lose more water than soap made in a loaf mold.
To give you a basis for my results, I usually use 33% lye concentration, allow my soap to gel, and use a loaf mold.
"...Is there a way to use your method with SoapCalc so I won't (I mean, probably will be less likely to) screw it up?..."
SoapCalc can't directly give you the "fragrance as % of total recipe weight" answer. It does give you the "Fragrance" weight based on the oil weight, the "Oils" weight, and the "Soap weight before CP cure or HP cook" when you view the completed recipe (see second pic).
Here's how you could adjust the fragrance weight to be based on total soap weight. Assume that your soap will lose 10% of its weight during cure -- in other words, a bar will weigh 90% of its original weight after cure. Then:
Fragrance based on total soap weight = (Soapcalc fragrance wt) x 0.90 x (Soapcalc soap weight before CP cure or HP cook) / (Soapcalc oils weight)
Example:
Fragrance wt = 50 g x 0.90 x 1448 / 1000 = 65 g
Hope this helps!