Coronavirus

[Susie]

This is really interesting, thanks!
I guess "flattening the curve" also means that it lasts longer. I just wish things were at least a little better by June because I'll have to move mid-June cross-country again....

I understand your frustration. Real life is real life, and sometimes you have to move in the middle of a pandemic.

However, "flattening the curve" does NOT make this last longer. It means that less people (maybe your loved ones, maybe mine) die because the amount of sick people stay below the maximum number of hospital beds and other resources available. It means that doctors don't have to let people die because there isn't another ventilator available. It means that less people over all get sick.

Had the US and its states started more stringent lockdown measures earlier, we would probably be already going back to life as normal. And, if people would stop having weddings, parties, in-person church services, spring break vacations on beaches, etc, we would not now be facing another potential month or more of this. However, people are not smart or wise as a whole. And they want to go back to life as normal as it was right now. Well, sweetie, that isn't going to help anyone, least of all, you. If/when you have to move, deal with the move then. Right now, stay at home.

Sorry if this comes off as strong, y'all. I deleted half of what I wrote already. But strong warnings are not enough to convince some people that this virus KILLS PEOPLE. Some young and healthy, some old and ill. But every one of us is at risk. It does not pick and choose.

 

[Megan]

Flattening the curve actually does make the pandemic last a little longer, because (unfortunately) roughly the same amount of people will get infected. The idea is to spread out that rate of infection so that hospitals can adequately care for those who need it when it arises.

I do agree that the lock down should have been more stringent. It's hard to say if tightening the faucet, or turning it off altogether would have been better though. What really hurt us, IMO, was all of the contradictory messaging we were hearing about the virus when it first came here to the US. The first thing the president told the country was that it was no big deal and that it would just disappear. That we had nothing to worry about. That is what people heard first and many still believe it. Young people feel invincible because they were told it couldn't hurt them (And lets face it, most young people are selfish, impulsive, and bacchanalian).

 

[Gaisy59]

I thought this was an extreamly interesting.



It doesnt look like much, but is from Dr. David Price: a critical care pulmonologist in NYC at Weill Cornell Hospital which apparently is almost solely Covid patients now. Has some really interesting info on how the virus spreads - a bit different than has been believed thus far.

This is what people need to hear instead of what we are getting in the news everyday which is promoting panic. A common sense approach instead of fear mongering. Thank you for posting this!

 

[atiz]

I understand your frustration. Real life is real life, and sometimes you have to move in the middle of a pandemic.

However, "flattening the curve" does NOT make this last longer. It means that less people (maybe your loved ones, maybe mine) die because the amount of sick people stay below the maximum number of hospital beds and other resources available. It means that doctors don't have to let people die because there isn't another ventilator available. It means that less people over all get sick.

Had the US and its states started more stringent lockdown measures earlier, we would probably be already going back to life as normal. And, if people would stop having weddings, parties, in-person church services, spring break vacations on beaches, etc, we would not now be facing another potential month or more of this. However, people are not smart or wise as a whole. And they want to go back to life as normal as it was right now. Well, sweetie, that isn't going to help anyone, least of all, you. If/when you have to move, deal with the move then. Right now, stay at home.

Sorry if this comes off as strong, y'all. I deleted half of what I wrote already. But strong warnings are not enough to convince some people that this virus KILLS PEOPLE. Some young and healthy, some old and ill. But every one of us is at risk. It does not pick and choose.

Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that flattening the curve is not the right thing to do. Absolutely, without any question at all.

But I do think it makes things last longer. At least based on what I've read, the expected number of people who end up getting infected is mostly the same whether we flatten the curve or not. The question is how this number gets distributed over time: whether everyone gets sick almost at once and break the health care system (I have a lot of friends in NYC and it's heartbreaking to read the news about the hospitals there), or they/we get sick sort of consecutively, on a "flat curve" -- a longer curve for sure, but flatter. In all, yes, less people die but not less people get sick.
Again, I'm not a medical expert so I may be misunderstanding the situation, there are so many different pieces of information going around.

ETA: sorry, didn't see @Megan's response earlier. She said it better.

 

[Mobjack Bay]

@Lin19687 The model I linked predicts that the maximum need for hospital beds in NY will be on April 9th, compared with late May or early June in Virginia. NY is dwarfing the effects of other states on the model output because NY alone accounts for so many of the current and predicted cases requiring hospitalization in the US.

Flattening the curve does not determine how many people will ultimately become infected by COVID-19. It’s most important as a public health tool for helping to keep the number of new cases at a level that does not exceed hospital resources.

 

[MGM]

"If you wait even a few hours before using anything you just purchased, most of the virus that was on any package will be significantly reduced. If you need to use something immediately, and want to take extra precautions, wipe the package down with a disinfectant. Last, wash all fruits and vegetables as you normally would...."

My first Christmas-like experience was when my first Walmart grocery order arrived Sunday morning. Everything that needed to go in the fridge was washed and everything else is in a 3-day time-out in the storage room. Second Christmas-like experience will be tomorrow morning when I can go get the rest of my groceries...mainly snack food IIRC.....

 

[DeeAnna]

"...Flattening the curve does not determine how many people will ultimately become infected by COVID-19. It’s most important as a public health tool for helping to keep the number of new cases at a level that does not exceed hospital resources...."

I agree. Given the inconsistencies in the restrictions on people's interactions and the large number of people who ignore the restrictions, the US is likely to have as many people get sick as if there were no restrictions at all. But given many of us are complying with restrictions, I hope the peak will not be as catastrophic.

Some countries have imposed rigid restrictions, serious enforcement of the restrictions, and widespread testing to contain "hot spots". If a country can manage to do this, you can create a situation where the curve is both flattened AND shortened. In other words, fewer people are sick at any one time and fewer people in total get sick. Problem is, the US isn't one of those countries.

What I don't think a lot of people realize is this outbreak is only the first in what will be a series of outbreaks. This one will be the worst, because we don't have any herd immunity in the human population right now and no vaccine (yet) to help build herd immunity. The virus is here to stay and will crop up again and again, just like other corona viruses we're more familiar with.

I hope no one is in a hurry to forget the lessons we're learning now.

 

[Mobjack Bay]

Strict controls during the early stages of the COVID-19 event could have contained the disease, but what they’re doing now is slowing the spread, reducing the number of sick people at any given time and, as a result, the number of people who can be kept alive in hospitals. The strategy is buying time for the research community to find alternatives or develop a vaccine. I’m not saying it’s a bad strategy, but there’s a flip side. The disintegration of a country’s economy also has major implications for the health and wellbeing of the population. That is the kindest explanation for why some leaders are starting to talk about lifting restrictions and allowing the disease to run its course. It’s a risk assessment exercise. If they lift restrictions and let the populations in their countries develop herd immunity, most people will be able to go back to work and some semblance of normality sooner rather than later. The price will be the lives of those who could have been saved by waiting for a vaccine or a better public health management strategy for a highly infectious disease in a globally connected world. There will be no herd immunity until something like 60-70% of the population has been infected and survived. The benefit will go to those who make it through. Borders will have to stay closed until a vaccine is developed and administered to those who have not been infected. Current estimates are 12-18 months for a vaccine if we keep our fingers crossed. Intermittent control strategies (in space or time) seem like the most viable option out there right now, but only if rapid testing, rapid contact tracing and immediate quarantine can be effected. That will mean major restrictions on the freedoms many enjoyed before the pandemic. It’s difficult for me to imagine a strategy like that working in the US, especially when I consider the current state of our political system. At the same time, I remain hopeful that the tremendous focus on vaccine development right now will lead to a breakthrough.

 

[dibbles]

I just saw this posted on FaceBook - seems like a good thing to do.

IMPORTANT COVID-19 INFO to share with the public:

Right now, write up a information sheet. Start with name, address, birthdate, phone number. Then include medical history, allergies and medication list.

Please do this for every member of your family and make sure it's handy and ready to be given to the Fire crews.

Make sure an "IN CASE OF EMERGENCY" phone number is on there.

We are not allowing ANYONE to accompany a patient to the hospital.

If you or a loved one has to go the hospital for ANY reason you don't want us, doctors or nurses missing key information.

Most of us have plenty of time on our hands right now. So, no excuses! Do it today please.

 

[Relle]

I just saw this posted on FaceBook - seems like a good thing to do.
IMPORTANT COVID-19 INFO to share with the public:
Right now, write up a information sheet. Start with name, address, birthdate, phone number. Then include medical history, allergies and medication list.
Please do this for every member of your family and make sure it's handy and ready to be given to the Fire crews.

I presume that this is for the USA only ? Can't understand about giving it to a fire crew .

 

[SeaSuds]

I presume that this is for the USA only ? Can't understand about giving it to a fire crew .

Not yet Relle, but my son is a fireman and they are being prepared to drive ambulances, be first responders and assist paramedics

 

[Susie]

I just saw this posted on FaceBook - seems like a good thing to do.

IMPORTANT COVID-19 INFO to share with the public:

Right now, write up a information sheet. Start with name, address, birthdate, phone number. Then include medical history, allergies and medication list.

Please do this for every member of your family and make sure it's handy and ready to be given to the Fire crews.

Make sure an "IN CASE OF EMERGENCY" phone number is on there.

We are not allowing ANYONE to accompany a patient to the hospital.

If you or a loved one has to go the hospital for ANY reason you don't want us, doctors or nurses missing key information.

Most of us have plenty of time on our hands right now. So, no excuses! Do it today please.

Thank you for this, Dibbles!!!

Speaking as someone who has been a nurse as well as an EMT, the standard place emergency crews are taught to look for that information is on the refrigerator. I have ours there, as well as a printed out copy (two sided) behind my driver's license and health insurance card. Those are the cards that will be removed from your wallet in case of an accident. You also need a list of your doctors. This will give them far more detailed information from the pertinent sources.

 

[Lin19687]

I presume that this is for the USA only ? Can't understand about giving it to a fire crew .

Here the Fire Dept is the one who goes on Medical calls they have an ambulance along too.
Many Nursing homes or Assisted living condos say the best thing is to have all info on the FRIDGE, and that is where they look. Things like DNR, names/numbers just don't have a ton of pics and crap on the fridge

People need to look at HOW the spread started a bit differently.... By the time that China KNEW <-- key word here, there was a Virus there were people infected that left the area. yeah Yeah, China blew it by keeping it secret for a while.

Just think about 2 people leaving the 'infected area' before it was known, going on a plane, both infected and touched the doors, railings, handles and seats as they walked in/by before boarding and after. Then say out of 200 on that plane, 100 were in contact with that spot and then carried the infection with Them. Now put them on at least 1-2 other planes to get to their destination and all the things they touched. Don't forget the SOLES of the SHOES and how it is now carried all over, even if they keep their hands to themselves. Think of how you take off your shoes and kids playing on the floor (yeah gross, and I cringe when I see that in public places gross).
Now draw a mental map of the spread..... it was going to happen no matter what. Remember they are saying that this stays on surfaces for DAYS and in the air for longer then the Flu.
Now if China was a bit more forthcoming and ALL the countries jumped on keeping people home, then we might be in a 'better' place. But then again see above in my 1st two sentences.

When my Restaurant closed on March 17th they all thought we would be closed for 2 weeks. I told them no, you won't , not sure if I said it here or on someones PM that I was talking about it. It will be Months before Restaurants open and then when they do no one will be going for 2 reasons. 1) no one has the Extra money to waste on that luxury (even small $ is still a luxury) when you have bills that can't be paid. 2) Most people know that employees of restaurants 'usually' work pay- pay and go to work even if they are sick..... ummm no thanks not on my food. If you didn't know that, let me tell you they do, servers and food prep. They don't have a choice and the bosses don't care so long as they can get the food out and customers are happy.

If you are out of work, Please look at your finances and PLAN to be super lean for a long while. As much as I would love to help Small Biz, I can't because, well I have to put food on the table for the family and pay the bills. Just like everyone else.

Oh and just so you know, Cheesecake Factory always says they are 'For the Employee'--- they are NOT so just keep that in mind when you are deciding on where to spend your money in the future. There are a LOT of employees that will no longer work for them because of this. They also own Grand Lux Cafe, RockSugar Southeast Asian Kitchen, North Italia & Flower Child.
Darden Restaurants are at least paying 1/2 of employees average paychecks to them for the next 3 week. They own : Eddie V's Prime Seafood, The Capital Grille, Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, Bahama Breeze, Seasons 52, Yard House and Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen.
HOW well companies treat their employees in this pandemic is who I will be doing my Future shopping/business with, just my opinion

Wow, sorry that was super long, too much coffee I think lol

 

[Susie]

If I have to leave religion out of all my posts, politics needs to be out of posts also.

 

[dibbles]

I presume that this is for the USA only ? Can't understand about giving it to a fire crew .

This was originally posted by a fire department. In some cases, a fire crew could be first responders as they are trained in emergency services and can get to a sight first. An ambulance would also be called. At any rate, I think it would be a good idea to have the information readily available for whoever the first responder is where someone lives, which was the intent of the post.

 

[StormyK]

If I have to leave religion out of all my posts, politics needs to be out of posts also.

lmao!! Well, this comes across as rather petty.

Personally, I don't care if religion or politics is in a post if there's a purpose for it beyond just preaching or forcing personal beliefs/opinions down others' throats. Dont "yell" at me about what I should believe or what (you deem) to be correct and we'll get along just fine. As with everything in life, just be respectful of others and their beliefs, stances, and opinions. Do that and you can usually say what you wish without anyone jumping down your throat.

One caveat - text is tough to interpret and its extra easy to offend by accident...

 

[Donna Ohanian]

Atiz, the US has not flattened the curve. We are #1, for the worst curve. Meaning it gets much worse, before it gets better. China & Italy ordered lockdowns and round 1 of the virus still took months. Maybe drugs will help. Testing is now back in 5 minutes thanks to a company from Maine. Look up Herd Immunity. Before this virus, it was 90-95%. Funny how they are saying 60% now. That will take time, it will take the virus coming back, or a vaccine, or both.

Depending on what you do for work, reality is 80% of US small businesses and restaurants will be bankrupt by mid-June, so you might not be moving. They get loans, not a bailout and most can’t go months without income. Time to get some new skills online. Food prices will sky rocket and I expect will be sparse since farmers will be affected too. People on here are crafty, hands on types. Grow gardens people! Regrow the veggies in your fridge with water! Stay home. Sew your own mask for when you have to go out or make one out of vacuum cleaner bags ( or coffee filters) and a bandana.

 

[atiz]

Atiz, the US has not flattened the curve. We are #1, for the worst curve. Meaning it gets much worse, before it gets better. China & Italy ordered lockdowns and round 1 of the virus still took months. Maybe drugs will help. Testing is now back in 5 minutes thanks to a company from Maine. Look up Herd Immunity. Before this virus, it was 90-95%. Funny how they are saying 60% now. That will take time, it will take the virus coming back, or a vaccine, or both.

Depending on what you do for work, reality is 80% of US small businesses and restaurants will be bankrupt by mid-June, so you might not be moving. They get loans, not a bailout and most can’t go months without income. Time to get some new skills online. Food prices will sky rocket and I expect will be sparse since farmers will be affected too. People on here are crafty, hands on types. Grow gardens people! Regrow the veggies in your fridge with water! Stay home. Sew your own mask for when you have to go out or make one out of vacuum cleaner bags ( or coffee filters) and a bandana.

Well, the US as a whole might not be doing its best, but I think several places -- including our town -- is pretty considerate and has been quite proactive with lockdowns. People have been very disciplined around here with social distancing. So, hopefully the curve will, indeed, be flattened. (I don't want to offend anyone, but having grown up in Europe -- which I'm very aware is not doing great either -- I find the US healthcare system pretty scary in general. I hope I'm wrong.)

I am lucky to have a job in higher ed, which, even though we have had to deal with some difficult/unusual things lately, is at least relatively stable. I know a lot of people are struggling right now and I do try to help local small businesses as much as I can.

 

[shunt2011]

lmao!! Well, this comes across as rather petty.

Personally, I don't care if religion or politics is in a post if there's a purpose for it beyond just preaching or forcing personal beliefs/opinions down others' throats. Dont "yell" at me about what I should believe or what (you deem) to be correct and we'll get along just fine. As with everything in life, just be respectful of others and their beliefs, stances, and opinions. Do that and you can usually say what you wish without anyone jumping down your throat.

One caveat - text is tough to interpret and its extra easy to offend by accident...

`
No, it's not. We don't allow religious or political postings. This is a soapmaking forum and we want to keep it that way. It will surely get out of control if not.

 

[KiwiMoose]

If I have to leave religion out of all my posts, politics needs to be out of posts also.

Hallelujah!